UFC 245: Predictions for Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman

UFC 245 will showcase three main event calibre fights and takes place Saturday, Dec. 14h, at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, United States. UFC Odds are already listed for the event. Here’s a complete betting guide previewing Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington, including updated odds and our betting prediction.

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington

UFC Welterweight Championship Bout

UFC 245, 14th December, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, Las Vegas

Three title fights, one night, UFC245!!! The Ultimate Fighting Championship will make its way to Las Vegas for one of the most exceptionally stacked fight cards which have been highly anticipated by martial arts fans for months.

The reigning, defending, undefeated Champion Amanda Nunes will defend her Bantamweight title against challenger Germaine De Randamie in the first of three main event showdowns taking place on Saturday. Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway will defend his Featherweight title against Alexander Volkanovski and last but not least; Kamaru Usman will unify his Welterweight title with Colby Covington’s interim Welterweight title in the final fight of the night.

This week we’ll focus on Colby vs Usman in what has been a hostile build-up for a significant amount of months. The clash was inevitable after Colby was stripped of the interim title due to issues with the UFC brass… Kamaru Usman stepped up and defeated Tyron Woodley to become the sole UFC Welterweight champion. Colby made his return and dominated Robbie Lawler at the same time earning a record for the most strikes thrown in a single bout (541).

With the animosity set in place, the only fight to make was between the divisions most elite. So, here we are… UFC 245 live on PPV from Las Vegas, are you not entertained? Just take a trip over to your favorite media platform and search ‘Colby Covington’, the stage show he puts on is something else.  

Colby Covington

Colby Covington (15-1) [+175 with Bet DSI]

The most hated man in mixed martial arts, Colby Covington has the entire UFC fan base riffled up in the best way. Not only does he openly support ‘Donald Trump’, the man continuously throws it in everybody’s face. His obnoxious anti-hero attitude is a spectacle to behold in itself; I genuinely haven’t found promotional entertainment on this level since Conor McGregor. The masses feed right into Colby’s hands each and every interview, little do they know… totally ignoring him would be the only way to make an impact on his career, good or bad attention doesn’t make a difference… profits are made through high numbers and that’s exactly what Colby has been achieving, in more than one-way!   

It wasn’t always a disrespectful approach with paid models by his side; let’s take a look at the true version of Colby Covington.

A well-educated Sociology degree student, 31-year-old Colby Covington started his martial arts journey when he found wrestling. Born and raised in Clovis, California it would be Thurston high-school where Colby’s dominance would begin. After lettering four-years at Thurston, he walked away as the 171lb state champion in his senior year.

Iowa Central Community College would be his next stop off, claiming the 165lb junior college title as a freshman. He would then return to Oregon, enrol with Oregon University and become a collegiate wrestling All-American champ and two-time Pac-10 Conference champion. Graduation, degree…school had been perfected.

Colby would make the move to South Florida, where American Top-Team (ATT) legend ‘Dan Lambert’ would sign the youngster almost instantly after his school life coming to an end. A huge gap for wrestling trainers was open at ATT and Colby was the man to fill that position. An amateur record of 5-0 was more than enough for the elite wrestling champion to step up into the big leagues. Colby made his professional debut in 2012, ‘David Hayes’ and the long list of fighters after him would all fall victim to Colby’s pre-eminence. A four-fight win streak later and Colby was signed by the UFC in 2014, making his debut against Anying Wang, which he went onto win by first-round TKO. Up until an unfortunate submission loss to Warlley Alves, Colby was undefeated and has stayed undefeated since the said loss.

The elite-level wrestling has obviously become a solid base for Colby’s MMA career but, over the years of training at ATT, he’s added some impressive offensive striking to his arsenal. Recording the UFC all-time record for ‘most strikes thrown in a fight’ against dangerous striker Robbie Lawler, it’s safe to say that Colby doesn’t rely strictly on his wrestling.

Since 2015, Colby hasn’t lost a fight. On top of that, he hasn’t even lost around. Unanimous decision victories would come up against some of the divisions most feared; such as Dong Hyun Kim, Demian Maia, Rafael Dos Anjos and most recently Robbie Lawler. That’s two former world champions and the most dangerous BJJ artist in the Welterweight division. Only one fight is left for the interim champion, Kamaru Usman!

Colby Covington Best Priced @ +175 with BetDSI 

Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman (15-1) [-175 with William Hill]

‘The Nigerian Nightmare’, Kamaru Usman has helped put African martial arts on the map by becoming the first UFC champion to come out of Nigeria. Much like his opponent on Saturday, dominant wrestling has helped pave his path through the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Usman was born and raised in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria up until the age of 8; when his farther would attend school in America and eventually become a pharmacist. A young fighting phenomenon would find a new home in the United States and take full advantage of their school wrestling programs. Although he didn’t find the same success as Colby, his early wrestling days would come with some embarrassment when Usman continuously lost to the same female wrestler. Not to be deterred, Usman’s hunger would see him leave school with a 53-3 record. The University of Nebraska was where Usman made a huge impact, helping the school achieve its first team-title in 2008 along with an NCAA Division II championship title for his solo achievements.

With some sound advice from former UFC champion ‘Rashad Evans’, Usman began his journey to becoming a world-class mixed martial artist. His first and only loss came within two fights of his professional career but, he hasn’t looked back since and remains undefeated since 2013.

An opportunity to compete on the UFC’s annual reality show ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ was how Usman ended up on the UFC roster. He won the tournament finale with submission victory (arm-triangle) and to this day, nobody has been able to stop the ‘Nigerian Nightmare’.

A six-figure contract before even competing against anybody on the UFC roster isn’t the worst career start, not that it made much difference. Usman remained the same, hungry, dangerous wrestling based athlete. Some may call Usman’s style “boring” but, he hasn’t just won these fights… he hasn’t lost a round in the eight fights that went the distance.

A younger version of Tyron Woodley may have stood a better chance against Usman, unfortunately for T-Wood, Usman didn’t just win the UFC Welterweight title from him…he absolutely dominated the fight from start to finish. He’ll now face another wrestler, but a younger and more experienced one. Arguably, this fight will be the biggest test that both athletes have ever faced.

Kamaru Usman Best Priced @ -175 with William Hill

UFC 245 Prediction and Betting Picks

A well-used slogan amongst martial arts fans is ‘styles make fights’; with Usman and Colby, I don’t think that applies. Equally, both fighters have an incredible amount of wrestling experience and success. Will this fight play-out similar to historic wrestler versus wrester matchups? I genuinely have no idea, and if somebody tells you otherwise then please point me in the direction of their crystal ball.

Each fighter has their own style of striking, which is possibly the key to separating these two. Colby will mix his strikes in with constant forward pressure and wrestling offence until he can perhaps get his opponent up the cage or in a compromised position to find the takedown. Short sharp strikes have given Colby an incredible striking output in certain fights, you won’t find much power behind the punches, methodical approaches to Colby’s bouts is the reason why we rarely see him lose around. With the almost perfect mix of wrestling & striking and an overwhelming amount of pressure, the opponents Colby to lose cardio before they can even find a foot in.  

Usman has a handful of advantages we should probably take note on. A 6-inch reach advantage and an evident power advantage. Avoiding the early pressure from Colby is going to be paramount for Usman to avoid the depletion of cardio, bigger muscles require more oxygen to feed them…nothing feels worse than lactic acid circulating through tired arms when you have a 25-minute fight, five-round fight in front of you.

Colby will need to avoid Usman’s utilization of his reach; power striking and power wrestling will come up against pressure wrestling and high output striking. Attempting to give a clear-cut prediction on this fight is almost impossible as we don’t have a losing record for these two animals in the cage; it becomes hard to find weak points on both fighters, especially when they haven’t lost around.  

The mental game will side with Covington; Usman has been agitated with Colby’s social media activity and “trolling”. How much will this affect the champ? Usman hasn’t faced anybody who has promoted the fight with disrespect in the way Colby does and we know how much the mental warfare can affect certain fighters who struggle to control their emotions in the cage.

So, a division I wrestling champion with slightly more experience, faster hand speed and potentially the stronger cardio will face a division II wrestling champion with more power and significant reach advantage.

As a professional bettor, the fight prediction for the UFC 245 main event is going to be a play based on odds. Colby is currently sat at +175 and I think that price will continue towards the 200’s. Personally, this fight is pick’em and the current line is a huge disrespect for Colby.

 If you’ve been following my fight breakdowns for a while now, you’ll know exactly what I’m going to bet before even reading this breakdown. Dog or pass baby! Side note, this event is not one to miss!!!

UFC 245 Betting Pick: Colby Covington @ +175 with BetDSI 

UFC 245 Fight Card


Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight title fight)
Amanda Nunes vs Germaine De Randamie (bantamweight title fight)   
Marlon Moraes vs Jose Aldo (bantamweight)
Petr Yan vs Uriah Faber (bantamweight)


Geoff Neal vs Mike Perry (welterweight)

Ron Font vs Irene Aldana (bantamweight)
Ian Heinisch vs Omari Akhmedov (welterweight)
Matt Brown vs Ben Saunders (welterweight)

Chase Hooper vs Daniel Teymur (featherweight)
Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France (flyweight)
Jessica Eye vs Viviane Araujo (women’s flyweight)

Punahele Soriano vs Oskar Piechota (middleweight)

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