If you’ve been tailing our Last Chance Value Picks then you’ve been cashing because last week, we did it again, and beat the books with the numbers that have drifted too far. Let’s do it one more time!
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 15, 2020 – 01:00 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
The line has floated from 1 to 4 as of this writing and it has to do with a few things. The first of which is Cleveland welcoming back Austin Hooper and Nick Chubb to bolster its offense. And the other has to do with Houston running back, David Johnson, being sidelined due to concussion protocols.
However, one under the radar advantage that the Texans will enjoy is getting their starting cornerback, Bradley Roby, back in the defensive backfield after disciplinary issues precluded him from playing last week’s game against the Jaguars. His presence should slow the Browns’ aerial assault and force them to focus on pounding the ball with Chubb and Hunt in the backfield. That could produce a low-scoring game that allows the Texans to hang and bang until the bitter end. Let’s include the Texans +4 in our NFL picks.
My Pick: Texans +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 15, 2020 – 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium
The NFL odds on this NFC South showdown reveal that the Bucs have gone from touchdown favorites to laying a more palatable six points. Sure, it is only a point but it is indeed, a significant drop because we no longer have to win by more than a touchdown in order to get a cover with the chalky road favorites. There is no more important number than three in professional football but seven comes a close second.
Elite quarterbacks coming off of a loss, especially a blowout loss as favorites, is a scenario that bodes well for a cover the following week. The definition of elite can vary from person to person but nobody would dispute that Tom Brady falls into that category and after getting throttled last week by the Saints, a divisional rival no less, we can be sure that TB12 will be more focused than ever.
The bottom line here is that Tom Brady is 36-10 against the number coming off of a loss when favored by less than seven points the following game. The moon and the stars are aligning in this one for a Bucs blowout unless the GOAT’s body has suddenly realized it’s well past its NFL expiration date.
My Pick: Buccaneers -6 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 15, 2020 – 04:25 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
After an enormous win over the rival Bucs last week, and sweeping the season series, wouldn’t you think that the Saints could be due for a letdown in this spot? Well, it is the first thing that came to my mind and, as I perused the lines at all of the top betting sites, I found that Intertops is giving us the best bang for our betting buck if you like the 49ers as much as I do.
San Francisco has been decimated by injuries that have marginalized them from a Super Bowl contender to a playoff pretender. However, this team is hardly chopped liver and it’s important to note they will be getting more than a few players back from injury. In addition, there are reports that Drew Brees has been limited in practice this week due to shoulder fatigue. If we take a look at the other New Orleans’ victories, we see that last week was their first blowout win of the season. Other than their two wins over Tampa Bay, their victories have all come by six points or less and those were not against great teams (Lions, Chargers, Panthers, and Bears). Let’s take what the books are giving us and grab the points with the live road hound here.
My Pick: 49ers +10 (-120) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)