Muswellbrook best bets and inside mail

Race 2 No. 9: Pleading

Ran well above her $31 SP on debut here back on August 2 in 2020. Been away a while but in good hands and the trials have been rippers.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No. 8: Le Cygne Noir

Has more talent than what she showed at Gunnedah on May 30. Has trialled very. very well since and is trained here.

VALUE

Race 7 No. 1: The Fossil

Sam Kavanagh has this horse flying; huge merit in the win at Gosford and comes back home for the Class 1 attempt.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 3,4

Race 6: 1,2,3,4

Race 7: 1,5

Race 8: 2,12,14

BEST EXOTIC

Quinella Race 3 Nos. 4 & 5

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Mikayla Weir has a grand book of rides including Personality Plus and Kliftee who both have rock solid prospects.

INSIDE MAIL: MUSWELLBROOK

RACE 1

Le Cygne Noir – French for The Black Swan – was quite green on debut at Gunnedah which is fair enough given it was her first start and first trip away. The Pat Farrell-trained Dubleo filly trialled again five days ago at Scone and was most impressive winning the heat. Expect better today at home. Abuela (grand-mother in Spanish) ran extremely well when she debuted in the Red Crown here on June 6. Drew barrier 2 again for this somewhat ‘easier’ race. Zaaki’s stablemate Bush Warrior will have admirers off his 2.3-lengths trial win at Kembla.

Bet: Le Cygne Noir win, quinella 5,8

RACE 2

Pleading is trained by Angela Davies who is famous for her strike-rate/placement. How about this; she has a 24 percent career win-rate, 50 percent place (wow) but wait for this – her winning percentage of Muswellbrook is 35.2 and 62 percent the place which means that Angela Davies-trained horses racing at Muswellbrook finish first, second or third 97.2 percent of the time. Monsoon Magic, also from Gosford, has trialled rather well. The Regular Show is an underrated gelding racing here for the first time today.

Bet: Pleading win

RACE 3

Personality Plus endured a pretty tough run at Newcastle on debut in that 1200m maiden but as trainer Mark Minervini points out, her best work was her last 200m which he kind of expected given her trial and where she is headed distance wise. The 1500m is therefore ideal and Muswellbrook is a nice big track. Galaxy Belle is surely getting close now with three placings from six starts and a 1200/1400m build-up to the 1500m mission. Manco Man is likewise crying out for this trip based on his closing fourth over 1280m here 15-days ago.

Bet: Personality Plus each-way, quinella 4,5, box trifecta 3,4,5,10

RACE 4

Apache Belle was rewarded for some good efforts this campaign with a win at Port Macquarie over 2000m on May 31. She has to stretch herself out to 2300m today with several weeks between runs but she is actually pretty deadly on that sort of pattern. Kliftee has only won twice in 33 starts but he has placed seven times and really doesn’t get going full tilt until he gets out to a trip. Value runner. Kikikapow is down in class from a Gosford 64 (ran second) to a Muswellbrook 58 so he’s got to enter into discussions.

Bet: Apache Belle each-way, Kliftee place

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

RACE 5

Mr Whitacre is a lightly-raced son of Deep Field. Pedigree buffs will be interested to learn that his third dam is Electronic who won the Metropolitan Handicap and Ranvet Stakes. As for Mr Whitacre, he sent out all the right signs that a win was close at hand when he finished the narrowest of seconds in a maiden at Tamworth first-up off a long absence. His danger could be his Rodney Northam-trained stablemate, Steplee, who wasn’t shown up in any way in his June 1 trial but moved well. Anselmo is a major player of his pre-Gunnedah efforts.

Bet: Mr Whitacre win, quinella 3,4

RACE 6

Hard Faith made her debut in front of circa 100,000 people in the Group 2 Ottawa Stakes a few hours before Almandin won the Melbourne Cup. Fast forward to more recent times, Hard Faith is now well and truly at home with Nathan Doyle. She’s had nine runs for Doyle made up of a win and six placings. As well as that, the mare has raced at Muswellbrook twice for a win and a second. Sausalito can never be ruled out of anything but with due respect, he doesn’t win a whole lot of time. That said, he went pretty close at Taree second-up.

Bet: Hard Faith win

RACE 7

The Fossil was an eye-catcher first-up at Tamworth on May 17 then swept past his rivals to win a 1200m maiden at Gosford on June 10. He comes home for his Class 1 mission and Kavanagh has managed to retain Christian Reith’s services for a third straight time. Super Solar is a grey coloured horse just like his famous fourth dam, Khaptivaan (aka the mother of Khaptingly). Shows a lot of promise and the trials are better than what they look on paper.

Bet: The Fossil win, quinella 1,5

RACE 8

Big Happiness is a horse of enormous promise and talent. His two runs this prep have both been here and he’s deadset toyed with the opposition each time. Granted, he is a Class 1 to a Class 3 but he might just be better than most horses – these included. Mosht Up is getting close to a win and deservedly so. Devil’s Choice could be the value runner for the exotics. Tupou beat Chaready here when he won his maiden earlier in the campaign.

Bet: Big Happiness win

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